Behavioral Intelligence for MLB

The decisions behind
the numbers.

SIQX (Situational IQ Index) measures the behavioral decision quality of MLB hitters and pitchers using Statcast plate discipline data — identifying who is making good decisions before the box score catches up.

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r = +0.444
SIQX vs xwOBA
qualified PA≥150 · 1,447 hitter-seasons · 2023–2026
r = −0.708
PSIQX v2 vs xwOBA
qualified PA≥150 · 1,496 pitcher-seasons · confirmatory
CLV
Primary validation
Closing line value · tracking May 2026
The Model

Ten behavioral components.
One behavioral score.

SIQX v12 scores hitters on ten Statcast behavioral components, each percentile-ranked against all qualified hitters in the current season. Equal weight (10% each) -- components selected on behavioral validity only.

FIQ
Fastball IQ
Contact quality + out-zone take rate on fastballs. Fastball-specific Statcast query.
Weight: 10%
DSR
Discipline Score Ratio
BB% / (BB%+K%). Most persistent plate discipline signal across 4 seasons.
Weight: 10%
CHS
Chase Avoidance
Out-of-zone swing rate (inverted). Higher score = better avoidance of bad pitches.
Weight: 10% — Penalty
ZWP
Zone Whiff Avoidance
Whiff rate on in-zone pitches (inverted). Higher score = fewer misses on hittable pitches.
Weight: 10% — Penalty
ZCN
Zone Contact Rate
Contact rate on pitches in the strike zone. Consistent contact on strikes.
Weight: 10%
OCN
Out-Zone Contact
Contact rate on out-of-zone pitches. Behaviorally valid -- reinstated v11.
Weight: 10%
ZAE
Zone Attack Early
In-zone swing rate in early counts (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1). Rewards early-count aggression.
Weight: 10%
ECC
Early Count Chase
Out-zone swing rate in early counts (inverted). Poor early decisions compound.
Weight: 10% — Penalty
TSS
Two-Strike Survival
Pitches seen per AB after reaching a 2-strike count. Pure decision quality under pressure.
Weight: 10%
ACW
Ahead Count Waste
Out-zone swing rate when ahead in count (inverted). Elite hitters don't chase when winning.
Weight: 10% — Penalty
How It Works

Decisions lead outcomes.
SIQX finds the gap.

The same outcome can result from excellent decisions or poor decisions that happened to work. SIQX identifies which is which — before the results correct.

1
Score every qualified hitter and pitcher
SIQX pulls Statcast plate discipline data weekly. All 380+ qualified hitters (10 components) and 400+ pitchers (9 components) are scored and percentile-ranked in the current season pool.
2
Identify behavioral divergence
High SIQX with lagging results = breakout candidate. Low SIQX with strong results = regression risk. The model flags both before the market corrects.
3
Apply to daily behavioral edge picks
Behavioral edge across all components identifies market pricing gaps. Primary validation is closing line value (CLV) -- did we beat the closing line? Underdog only.
Live Signals — June 2, 2026
▲ Breakout Watch
Yordan Alvarez
HOU · SIQX 66.6 · xwOBA .493
Elite production fully backed by decision quality — not a hot streak. Divergence −57 means the behavioral profile is still slightly ahead of the results.
▼ Regression Alert
James Outman
MIN · SIQX 29.8 · div +63
Results are running ahead of a weak behavioral profile. SIQX 29.8 doesn't support even the current modest output — further decline is the likelier path.
▲ Breakout Watch
Juan Soto
NYM · SIQX 66.7 · xwOBA .422
Plate discipline among the league's best. Divergence −52 means the profile still leads the results — the production is behavioral, with room to climb.
▲ Team Watch
Los Angeles Dodgers
SIQX #1 of 30 · composite 59.9
Most complete profile in MLB. Rotation 53.2, bullpen 65.6 (full-pen PSIQX). Alex Call is the #1 hitter in baseball at 89.8 SIQX.
Methodology

Built on Statcast.
Validated against results.

Full research paper with component definitions, behavioral validity audit, bullpen separation methodology, behavioral edge framework, CLV validation methodology, limitations, and live pick record.

SIQX: Situational IQ Index — June 2026 (SIQX v12 · revision in progress)

Working paper covering SIQX v12 (hitters), PSIQX v2 (pitchers), bullpen model, behavioral edge pick model with full validation, multi-season validation (2023-2026), and threats to validity. Revising to v12 after the June 2026 count-split correction — correlations re-derived on 1,447 hitter-seasons, 1,496 pitcher-seasons (PA≥150).

r=.444
SIQX vs xwOBA (PA≥150)
r=.708
PSIQX v2 vs xwOBA
1,447
Qualified hitter-seasons
↓  Download Methodology PDF
About

Built by a behavioral
data scientist.

SB
Stephen Bridwell
Sr. Applied Scientist · M.I.D.S., UC Berkeley · Tampa, FL

The same discipline that powers SIQX — identifying signal in behavioral data at scale — is the foundation of my professional work in machine learning systems. SIQX applies that expertise to baseball: measuring not what players do, but how they decide.

siqx.net @SIQXindex on X LinkedIn
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