From Metric to Platform

Building the behavioral
intelligence layer for baseball.

Two destinations, one foundation — a public, validated, predictive track record. Everything below is gated on it.

The two ambitions
AMBITION 01

An industry-recognized metric

SIQX & PSIQX cited alongside DRC+, Stuff+, and OAA — open methodology, published validation, a predictive public record.

AMBITION 02

The AI insights platform

One behavioral engine across sports betting, fantasy, and player & team performance — delivered by push and a paid interactive agent.

One gate governs both. Nothing is sold until the model proves a real, positive-EV edge in public. The early stages buy credibility, not revenue — and credibility is the asset competitors can’t fake.

The path · gated, not dated
Stage 0
Validate the core
NOW → ALL-STAR BREAK
GATE: +EV out-of-sample block, win rate > implied, positive coefficient
  • ✓ DONE — count-split correction + refreshed correlations (PA≥150): r = +0.444 / −0.708
  • ✓ DONE — v11→v12 decision; pick log reset, tracking live from June 10
  • Grid search & rolling weight blend on the 150-PA pool — in progress
  • Log every pick publicly — wins and losses (live at v12)
Stage 1
Credibility & audience
2026 H2 (PARALLEL)
GATE: ~1,000 engaged followers + public track record live
  • Track-record page + reproducible methodology repo
  • Reply-driven X growth; enter SABR / FanGraphs community
  • Methodology white-paper draft
Stage 2
First paid product: push
POST-VALIDATION
GATE: sustained +EV over a second independent block
  • Daily card + reasoning via Discord / Substack tiers
  • Free tier keeps yesterday’s card; paid unlocks today’s edge
Stage 3
Expand bet types
2026 H2 → 2027
GATE: each product validated independently (30+ sample, +EV)
  • Props first (start the live-log from zero now), then run totals
  • Parlays last — only after the legs are proven
Stage 4
The paid agent
BUILD 2026/27 · LAUNCH 2027
GATE: retention / usage that justifies cost
  • Interactive SIQX/PSIQX agent on siqx.net — ask it anything
  • Freemium → premium: live edges, props, unlimited queries
Stage 5
Durable B2B revenue
2027
After the metric earns recognition
  • Data/API licensing to media & tools
  • B2B player-evaluation & scouting reports; team/org consulting; DFS
Stage 6
Industry-metric status
2027 → 2028+
THE NORTH STAR
  • White paper, conference talks (SABR / Saberseminar), media citations
  • Team adoption; license the metric; pursue Statcast/MLB partnership