The path · gated, not dated
GATE: win rate > implied AND positive EV at opening odds, over a pre-registered sample — Cleared at the 30-pick checkpoint (19–13, 59% vs 45% implied, +EV). That cohort closed at 19–16, 54.3% vs 45.2% implied over 35 resolved picks — the interim figure is shown because it was published at the time; the closing figure is the one that stands. A defect in team aggregation was found on Aug 24 and corrected; the pick log reset and validation restarts from zero on the corrected model.
- ✓ DONE — count-split correction + refreshed correlations (PA≥150): r = +0.444 / −0.708
- ✓ DONE — Sept 9: historical FIQ was a hard-hit proxy (an outcome measure); replaced with the fastball-specific FIQ the live model uses. Hitter correlation re-derived +0.444 → +0.31 (1,207 closed-season hitter-seasons); pitchers unchanged at −0.71. Same rule as June: re-measure after a score-side fix, never tune on outcomes.
- ✓ DONE — v11→v12 decision; pick log reset, tracking live from June 10
- Weighting revalidation at full sample — validated against xwOBA correlation only, never the pick record; any change is a new version on a fresh clock
- Log every pick publicly — wins and losses, including the closed cohorts
- Team aggregates weighted by playing time — a flat average counted a bench bat and an everyday regular equally, and an injured starter the same as one making every turn. Found through a public question, not the pick record, and corrected in the direction the evidence pointed. Pick log reset on a fresh clock.
- ✓ DONE — 30-pick gate passed. The 50-pick checkpoint pre-registered against that cohort did not complete: the cohort closed at 35 when the aggregation defect was corrected. Not carried forward — a checkpoint registered against one model is not evidence about another.
Stage 1
Credibility & audience
2026 H2 (PARALLEL)
GATE: ~1,000 engaged followers + public track record live
- Track-record page + reproducible methodology repo
- Reply-driven X growth; enter SABR / FanGraphs community
- Methodology white-paper draft
Stage 2
First paid product: push
POST-VALIDATION
GATE: sustained +EV over a second independent block
- Daily card + reasoning via Discord / Substack tiers
- Free tier keeps yesterday’s card; paid unlocks today’s edge
GATE: each product validated independently (30+ sample, +EV)
- Props and run totals — under research; each gated on its own independent Step-0 + live validation
- Parlays last — only after the legs are proven
BUILD 2026/27 · LAUNCH 2027
GATE: retention / usage that justifies cost
- Interactive SIQX/PSIQX agent on siqx.net — ask it anything
- Freemium → premium: live edges, props, unlimited queries
Stage 5
Durable B2B revenue
2027
After the metric earns recognition
- Data/API licensing to media & tools
- B2B player-evaluation & scouting reports; team/org consulting; DFS
Stage 6
Industry-metric status
2027 → 2028+
THE NORTH STAR
- White paper, conference talks (SABR / Saberseminar), media citations
- Team adoption; license the metric; pursue Statcast/MLB partnership