Transparency First

Every pick.
Win or lose.

SIQX publishes its complete moneyline record — including the losing stretches. The model is held to two standards: win rate above the market’s implied probability, and positive expected value. We do not sell a pick product until it clears them.

⚠  v12 · tracking restarts June 10, 2026

v11 closed below the market over 35 resolved picks. In June 2026 a Statcast data bug was found and fixed — four behavioral components were silently duplicated — so the corrected model is declared v12 and the live record restarts from zero. No paid recommendation product is for sale, and none will be until the v12 record demonstrates a real, positive-EV edge.

Record
0–0
1 pick logged · 0 resolved
Win rate vs implied
tracking begins
First v12 pick
KC +108
Jun 10 · pending
What changed
v12
count-split components corrected
Record
12–23
35 resolved · 1 PPD · 1 voided
Win rate vs implied
34.3%
vs 46.0% implied · −11.7 pp · below market
CLV average
−0.02%
18 captures · peaked +0.49%
Why closed
v12 fix
count-split bug corrected Jun 2026

v11 ran with four count-split components silently duplicated — a Statcast filter the API quietly ignored. Once corrected, the hitter–xwOBA correlation re-derived from +0.573 to +0.444 and the pitcher correlation from −0.526 to −0.708. Per the live-forward rule, a methodology change resets the record: v11 is closed exactly as it stands, and every pick from June 10 forward is graded as v12.

Primary: win rate vs implied probability

A pick is only good if it wins more often than the odds said it would. Beating your own coin flips is meaningless; beating the market’s is the whole game. v12 tracking has just begun — conclusions wait for 100+ picks.

Primary: expected value per pick

Was each pick +EV at the price we posted — not an idealized number? EV is graded at opening odds, the price a follower could actually have taken.

Bonus: closing line value

CLV is captured opportunistically as a sanity check — never required, never used to grade the core edge. Live in-game odds are excluded so they can’t flatter it.

Live-forward only

Components, weights, and thresholds are frozen. Nothing is ever tuned against the pick log. If the methodology changes, a new version is declared and the record restarts from zero.

Postponements voided

PPD games are auto-voided after two days and excluded from every calculation — never quietly counted as wins.

One pick per day

No volume-padding, no chasing. When no underdog clears the behavioral-edge threshold, there is no pick — and we say so.

OPEN METHODOLOGY
Full scoring code and component definitions are public.
github.com/sbridwel/siqx-baseball
DAILY CARD
Each day’s pick — or documented no-pick — posted in real time.
@SIQXindex on X