SIQX publishes its complete moneyline record — including the losing stretches. The model is held to two standards: win rate above the market’s implied probability, and positive expected value. We do not sell a pick product until it clears them.
v11 closed below the market over 35 resolved picks. In June 2026 a Statcast data bug was found and fixed — four behavioral components were silently duplicated — so the corrected model is declared v12 and the live record restarts from zero. No paid recommendation product is for sale, and none will be until the v12 record demonstrates a real, positive-EV edge.
v11 ran with four count-split components silently duplicated — a Statcast filter the API quietly ignored. Once corrected, the hitter–xwOBA correlation re-derived from +0.573 to +0.444 and the pitcher correlation from −0.526 to −0.708. Per the live-forward rule, a methodology change resets the record: v11 is closed exactly as it stands, and every pick from June 10 forward is graded as v12.
A pick is only good if it wins more often than the odds said it would. Beating your own coin flips is meaningless; beating the market’s is the whole game. v12 tracking has just begun — conclusions wait for 100+ picks.
Was each pick +EV at the price we posted — not an idealized number? EV is graded at opening odds, the price a follower could actually have taken.
CLV is captured opportunistically as a sanity check — never required, never used to grade the core edge. Live in-game odds are excluded so they can’t flatter it.
Components, weights, and thresholds are frozen. Nothing is ever tuned against the pick log. If the methodology changes, a new version is declared and the record restarts from zero.
PPD games are auto-voided after two days and excluded from every calculation — never quietly counted as wins.
No volume-padding, no chasing. When no underdog clears the behavioral-edge threshold, there is no pick — and we say so.